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INSIDER INFO -- SEPTEMBER 2005
It's a tie!
Run, Bill, run!
Out of bounds!
Terror, terror, terror
Four Corners of Pennsylvania and more
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It's a tie!
Scranton and Swann are considred equal front-runners in the Republican race for governor
At the end of Republican State Committee on Sept. 10, GOP insiders said Republican gubernatorial hopefuls, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and former Steelers star Lynn Swann, were essentially tied in the state committee endorsement sweepstakes.
Swann, who had fallen slightly behind Scranton over the summer, used a blitzkrieg of charm and previewed television commercials he and his well-known media advisor had produced to show his seriousness about the race – although he didn’t declare his candidacy (see accompanying story on that).
Meanwhile, Bill Scranton is raising eyebrows because he is now making soundings that he may run in a Republican primary next May regardless of whether he wins next February’s endorsement of Republican State Committee.
The fourth candidate in the fray, conservative Jim Panyard, who is the former president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers Association, has said he will remain in the race through May regardless of the party endorsement.
So it is not only unclear whether Swann or Scranton will win the state party endorsement, and if Scranton and Panyard run regardless, it is unclear whether the endorsement will mean as much next year.
Panyard will run no matter who gets the endorsement, and as the most conservative candidate, he could hurt other conservatives. Swann, with his immense popularity in the west, and his name recognition across the state, could win a primary.
But so could Scranton. He has residue name recognition from his own race and the golden gubernatorial era of his father who was governor from 1963 to 1967 and if Swann and Panyard break up the hard-conservative vote, it plays in Scranton’s favor.
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As we said at the beginning, they’re tied. And as one GOP wit said, “Everyone will tell you, we are waiting to see who does the best. But we’re also waiting for Bill or Lynn to make that big mistake that gives it to the other one.”
Former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton is flirting with the notion of seeking next year’s GOP nomination even if he loses the state party endorsement to either of two rivals, former Steeler Lynn Swann or state Sen. Jeff Piccola.
But the most interesting part of the Scranton campaign is this other departure from his past as a traditional establishment Republican candidate. Scranton, the former lieutenant governor and son of a former governor, is campaigning harder against the pay raise and the legislative leaders in Harrisburg than Swann, the political outsider, or Piccola, who actually voted against the pay raise, angering his GOP Senate colleagues.
Scranton on the one hand is doing a good job at getting traditional GOP loyalists who worked for his 1986 campaign -- former Ridge and Bush Pennsylvania political director Leslie Gromis-Baker, former Ridge and Bush top Pennsylvania fund-raiser David Girard-DiCarlo, Ridge and Thornburgh top Pittsburgh fund-raiser Evans Rose.
But then he’s enlarged his circle with new hard-right-edge conservative firebrands like former state Rep. Jeff Coleman, tech millionaire Glenn Meakem of Pittsburgh, publicist and attorney Charlie Gerow of Harrisburg and former Pat Toomey political director Mark Dion.
But in assembling the second group, and taking such a high-stakes, high-profile stand on the pay raise issues -- only Scranton and Panyard urged state committee members to vote for a resolution rescinding the pay raise, while Piccola and Swann said they opposed the pay raise but it was up to members to cast their own votes – Scranton has angered Senate GOP leaders.
Senate President Pro Tem Bob Jubelirer, R-Blair, may be officially neutral, but he is working behind the scenes for Swann because he is angry that Meakem – Scranton’s campaign co-chair – was a financial backer of the group which aired ads attacking Jubelirer as being “too liberal, too long,” and proclaiming that Jubelirer has been “raising our taxes and his salary since 1975.”
Scranton not only refused to discipline Meakem or demote him, but has elevated Meakem’s role in the campaign.
And some of the Jubelirer and Swann insiders are asking a question: despite criticizing Jubelirer for tax hikes and pay raise votes, Meakem and the Young Conservatives of Pennsylvania have not yet attacked House Republicans, or House Speaker John Perzel, who has riled conservatives more often and more completely than any Republican politician in the state.
And Meakem has continued to give money to Perzel, and Perzel is said to be leaning towards an eventual endorsement of Scranton, despite the pay raise criticisms Scranton has made.
Some wonder if a forthcoming Perzel endorsement of Scranton isn’t behind the strange silence of the pay raise critics when it comes to Perzel.
Scranton has also fended off questions about his personal practice of meditation, defusing that issue. Now questions are being raise about the record of the Thornburgh-Scranton administration, and the tax hikes and pay raises of those two terms are being held against Scranton by his foes. He is just sweeping aside those criticisms, saying he doesn’t want to talk about the past. But that may not be his choice to make forever.
The other big question is why Scranton is now saying he might not step aside if Swann wins the endorsement over him?
The simple answer is that the math favors Scranton in a multi-candidate race. Why? Because Swann, Piccola, and recent GOP entry, conservative ideologue Panyard, could split up the hard-right vote, thus allowing Scranton to ride name recognition and southeastern and northeastern Republicans to the nomination.
Scranton told The Insider in a yet-to-be-published interview that he realizes he has to work harder at becoming the Republican candidate for governor in 2006 than he did in 1986 when the endorsement and nomination were handed to him.
“This time I have to earn it!” Scranton declared.
Out of bounds! Lynn Swann won't utter the words, "candidate" or "election" until after football season
Lynn Swann burst on the political scene earlier this year, creating a great buzz with his interest in the Republican nomination for governor.
But over the summer, Swann fell slightly behind chief rival, Bill Scranton, who seemed to have momentum in terms of endorsements of key Republicans and outreach to the news media and Republican constituencies.
So why won’t Swann say the words: “I’m running for governor.”
Because, to use another expression of the day made famous by another celebrity, Donald Trump, Swann would then hear the words, “You’re fired!”
He would hear that from ABS Sports which employs him as a popular, seen-on-TV-every-weekend-in-the-fall sportscaster for college football games.
And as Stuart Stevens, Swann’s newly hired and pricey media guru said, “There is nothing like having a charming, good-looking candidate on TV every week.”
But the Scranton and Piccola campaigns have been making some inroads among delegates, by arguing that Swann is flirting with politics, and not serious. A serious campaign, both argue, would not hesitate to use the words “campaign,” “governor,” and “election.”
So Swann hired Stevens and is using his ads – which still don’t use the magic ABC-job-ending words “election,” “governor” or “campaign” to buy more time to stay at his day job, and still run for governor.
The message is simple: Nobody would hire President Bush and former Gov. Tom Ridge’s expensive media consultant and then actually make commercials if they aren’t running.
The bottom line is simple: Swann still believes he can keep his ABC job until the state committee endorses a candidate. As a former football star, he knows it’s possible to lose that kind of big game, and he doesn’t want to lose his current job as well as his dream job of being the GOP nominee against Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell next year.
Now any consultant will always praise the candidate that will pay them potentially millions of dollars, but Stevens has a strong track record: his successful clients list includes Ridge, President Bush, 1996 GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole, the last three elected Republican governors of Massachusetts (Bill Weld, Paul Cellucci and Mitt Romney), Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich and lots of others.
So when Stevens claims that Swann “has the best candidate skills I have ever seen,” it may be part media hype but it’s also something with which many rank and file GOP committee members might agree.
Bruce Barclay, an undecided GOP state committee member and county commissioner in Cumberland County, near Harrisburg, is one of those for whom the show is being staged.
Barclay said: “The argument is that he is the best candidate, that he can stand up to Rendell’s great candidacy skills, and I can see that when I met with him. He came to my house for a fund-raiser, along with the other two. Some people, one at a time, said hi to Jeff Piccola. A few wanted to go talk to Bill Scranton. But Swann had a constant crowd surrounding him, asking for autographs, every time he moved, a circle of people moved with him.
“Scranton has done very well and a lot of people are impressed by his force and vision. Lynn has to show some substance, and Bill has to keep working hard and show he can make a strong argument. We still have months to decide.”
Swann and his campaign still have to show they are conversant with the issues facing the state. That was one of the issues addressed in a recent ESPN profile of Swann and his political ambitions. Go to: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=garber_greg&id=2159013&num=0
Swann and Piccola are very unlikely to contest the Republican endorsement, if Scranton gets it. But Scranton has not ruled out flouting the party and seeking the nomination without the endorsement.
And now, after Stevens cut the ads and GOP insiders saw them, the Swann team hopes insiders now believe Swann is serious and in this to win it.
But Scranton insiders want GOP power brokers to remember that while Scranton, Piccola and Swann were all holding competing receptions at Republican State Committee at the Hilton in Harrisburg on Friday night, by 10 p.m., only Scranton and Piccola were still at their own parties 90 minutes after they had begun.
Swann had left his affair to jet to the college football game he would report on the next day.
Terror, terror, terror Congressman Curt Weldon, confidant of his constituents' loyalty, lobs bombs at the CIA and hits it intelligence gathering process hard
U.S. Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Delaware, has long been thought of as a steady GOP foreign policy vote, with a history of foreign policy alarmism.
Years ago he toured the state and nation warning of the danger of nuclear bombs being carried in suitcases.
It’s been a long journey for the former mayor of Marcus Hook whose biggest claims to fame for years was succeeding maverick suburban Democrat Bob Edgar in what should have been a reliable GOP seat, and head of the volunteer fireman’s caucus.
But now, Santorum has written a new book that has caused a firestorm: “Countdown to Terror.” And the political fallout may imperil his biggest goal - - moving up from vice chairman to chairman of the House Homeland Security and Armed Services Committees.
In his book, Weldon alleges that the CIA has ignored critical information and that Weldon has had to fight with them to get them and the White House to pay attention to a key source.
More on Weldon and his sourcing later but for now, let’s look at the political ramifications from Weldon’s book and outspokenness.
But it has opened him to widespread criticism. He has been called “a nut,” by both conservative and liberal foreign policy and intelligence experts. His sources have been widely derided.
And there is even discussion that his jihad against the CIA could block his expected rise to the chairmanship he covets on the U.S. House Homeland Security and Armed Services Committee. So his rise to chairman of the committee is now in some doubt when his turn comes.
Most of Weldon’s Pennsylvania colleagues, Democrat and Republican, widely regard his book as unreliable, according to sources in each caucus.
But other rumors that the CIA or the Bush White House might find a GOP challenger to Weldon are highly unlikely. The former Marcus Hook mayor is safe in his district, where his foreign policy enthusiasms (or over-enthusiasms) are forgiven because his spot on the committee helps the military contractors who provide many of the jobs in Delaware County.
In fact, when he first arrived in Washington, Weldon held the nickname, “the congressman from Boeing,” a reference to the military helicopter plant located near the Philadelphia airport.
Weldon’s boosting of local military contracts was the expected. But his criticisms of U.S. foreign policy were the unexpected and it’s put him at odds with his own White House and the Bush administration.
Weldon says he gave the CIA “hits,” including information about the location of Osama Bin Laden. “Over the past five months that he was there (in Iran) twice, and I also told them two years ago he was in a small town in a southern part of Iran called Ladiz, 10 kilometers inside the border with Pakistan in Baluchistan. I'd say he's been in and out repeatedly.”
But Weldon says the CIA, by not listening to him and, as a result, it is missing chances to prevent terrorist attacks and catch Bin Laden.
The source for many of the memos cited by Weldon in his book was revealed by liberal magazine, The American Prospect and other sources to be Fereidoun Mahdavi, a former minister of commerce in the Shah of Iran’s administration, and a longtime business associate of an arms dealer connected to the Iran-Contra scandal, Manucher Ghorbanifar.
Mahdavi later told The American Prospect that he was mostly passing on information to first the CIA, then later to Weldon, from Ghorbanifar, who the CIA officially ruled as untrustworthy and unreliable, a “fabricator,” after first working with him for years.
The New York Times quoted Bill Murray, a former CIA station chief in Paris who met with Mahdavi as saying, “He's never given us any information that was the slightest bit credible. This guy was a waste of my time and resources.”
Weldon responded that he had received classified letters from the CIA welcoming more information from his source, whom he named only as Ali, not confirming it was Mahdavi.
On NBC’s “Meet the Press” in June, Weldon said, “The information I gave the CIA has been proven to be true. We gave them a series of actions in every case. When they say he was getting it from open sources, we did a search through the Congressional Research Service of all those allegations and predictions. In every case, I gave the information to the CIA before any media worldwide reported it. I think that's worthy of further investigation.”
Weldon also claimed information from this source helped avert an attack on the Seabrook Nuclear plant in New Hampshire. While Canadian officials did arrest 19 suspects in that case, none were ever charged with more than immigration violations. And the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Seabrook officials later denied there was a credible threat to the plant.
Weldon told Meet The Press’s Tim Russert, “Well, that, again, differs with the meeting I had on January 26 in my office with two members of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the governor's representative for security, the intelligence officer for New Hampshire. They, in fact, told me that the first day that they were informed of the credible threat to Seabrook was on November the 24th. That was the exact day that my informant told me that the reactor was going to be hit.”
Weldon said this case was just the latest example of the CIA failing in its important mission, but fighting a public relation battle to conceal major errors from Congress and the American people.
“The CIA doesn't have a good record,” he insisted. “They failed to predict 9/11. They failed to understand North Korea had a three-stage missile before it was launched in 1998.”
Four Corners of Pennsylvania and more More bad polling for Sen. Santorum but he's seen it before and survived
One poll has already been made public and another is about to be released that will show the same 14-point spread in favor of Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr. over GOP incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum if the election were held today.
According to The Hill newspaper, The Strategic Vision survey, conducted Saturday through Monday, gives Casey a 14-point lead over the second-term senator, with the Democrat at 52 percent and the Republican at 38 percent. Seven percent of the 1,200 likely voters interviewed were undecided. A poll released in early August by the same firm showed Casey leading Santorum by 11 points.
Santorum seems to be suffering because of his new book, “It Takes a Family,” which has some women’s groups upset and more recently over comments he made about Hurricane Katrina. Casey, meanwhile, has taken few positions but is spending his time raising money for his bid to take Santorum’s seat.
Santorum’s campaign appears to be tackling his slumping poll numbers by reminding the GOP base of Santorum’s storied history as the underdog who has always had difficult races but who has always won. “(My elections) haven’t been easy but they’ve all been successful,” Santorum told the Republican delegates on Sept. 10.
Santorum’s media consultant, John Brabender, did a 20-minute political bio which debuted at Republican State Committee that tracked how Santorum overcame odds in all four of his elections, starting with his improbably bid for Congress in 1990 against an eight-term incumbent and ending with his re-election in 2000 where he won by six percentage points even though Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore carried the state by five percentage points.
Southeastern Pennsylvania
Legislative Embarrassment I: State Rep. Daylin Leach, D-Montgomery, had to permanently shut down his Web site after some of the humor columns he had posted on it came under heavy fire after the site was spotlighted by the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Leach began the writings to friends and acquaintances but some of his blog entries veered into pornography and sex and included some comments that might have been offense to Muslims. In a brief letter posted on the site Sept. 2, Leach apologized to anyone he may have offended.
Northwestern Pennsylvania
Legislative Embarrassment II: State Rep. John Evans, R-Erie County, got into a scuffle with a local business group, the Manufacturers’ Association of Northwest Pennsylvania, over the state pay raise which he voted for and accepted.
Evans complained to Ralph Pontillo, the association’s president, about a letter to the editor critical of the pay raise that was published in two local newspapers. It was written by a past chairman of the manufacturers’ association. He then threatened to cut off contact with the business group and its director of government affairs and asked to have his name removed from its mailing list. He has since rescinded that request.
Pontillo told the Erie Times-News: "The message I got was that this organization was no longer available to contact our legislator on state legislative issues or any other matter, unless we ceased our opposition to the pay raise."
Northeastern Pennsylvania
A battle is brewing to replace about-to-announce-he’s retiring Sen. Charles Lemmond. Lemmond and the state Senate GOP leaders are backing former Northeast PA regional director for Gov. Tom Ridge, Lisa Baker, for the post. Kingston Mayor Jim Haggerty and a host of conservatives are also eyeing the post.
But Baker, as Ridge’s representative in northeast Pennsylvania and a one-time staffer to Lemmond, knows the most about the problems and state’s involvement in that region. And she has strong support and is expected to be the front-runner and the next senator.
And in a shocking departure from usual practice, Lemmond is expected to finish his term, and Baker to run in an open primary in 2006. Senate Republicans hardly ever do that anymore and never when they have any doubts about their chosen candidate. So that is a vote of confidence in Baker, and maybe a feeling that Haggerty may be stronger at the county committee level- which would play a bigger role if Lemmond stepped down and there was a special election- than at the ballot box.
Southwestern Pennsylvania
Pittsburgh City Council wants to get in on the action, the gambling action that is. The council passed a unanimous resolution Sept. 14 directing Mayor Tom Murphy to apply for the one slot machine license earmarked for a facility within the city limits.
Council President Gene Ricciardi was the author of the resolution, which still awaits final passage Sept. 20. “Why take $17 million when you could have $250 million,” he said, explaining that if the city controlled a casino it would eliminate property taxes, pay down debt, fix the city’s infrastructure and build a new sports arena for the financially ailing Pittsburgh Penguins.
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