When local TV newscasts showed presidential candidate Barack Obama exiting the Philadelphia debate Wednesday night and greeting cheering supporters, a slim man got a hug from Obama as the Illinois senator greeted the crowd. He may not been recognized by most viewers but Harrisburg insiders quickly identified him as state Rep. Josh Shapiro, D-Montgomery.

The two Democrats had begun their day together 11 hours earlier when Shapiro took Obama to a meeting with more than 60 key Jewish leaders in the state, so Obama could woo support from a group he needs to win to carry the key Philadelphia suburbs in the April 22 primary election.

Obama has benefited from U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah’s support in black Philadelphia and he has put forth U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. as the TV ad face of his Pennsylvania campaign as he tries to allay voter worries after his most recent gaffe.

That would be when Obama told a group of San Francisco donors that Pennsylvanians in small towns were “bitter” and “clinging to” religion, racism and guns because of their economic concerns.

The Obama-Shapiro relationship began to flower in 2006, when Obama spent the last Saturday before the election touting candidates for the state House selected by Shapiro and state Rep. Mike Gerber, D-Philadelphia. Ever since, Shapiro has been a constant feature of the Obama campaign in white upper-class Philadelphia, in the suburbs and in the area’s Jewish community. As one Obama strategist put it: “We have Chaka and Josh helping up rev up our base of black and upper-class educated white voters, and Bobby doing our outreach to (U.S. Sen. Hillary) Clinton’s base and unions, and Josh as our ambassador to the Jewish community. “And Josh and Bobby have been our guys to go on cable TV and be our campaign surrogates, so the networks have somebody other than Ed Rendell, every hour, every station, on the hour. “I’ve been in a lot of states and I can’t remember the last time a second-term state rep played such a big role in a presidential campaign,” the Obama strategist said. This is not the first big role for Shapiro. In 2006, he helped the House Democrats win back their majority by teaming with fellow Montgomery County House Democrat Mike Gerber to run the southeastern campaign strategy that cut the GOP edge by five seats, winning the chamber by a slim one-vote majority.

Barack Obama Josh Shapiro

And when House Democrats couldn’t unify behind a caucus candidate for Speaker, and appeared to be about to lose their slim majority over that dissension, Shapiro brokered the deal that essentially made friendly Republican, Denny O’Brien, R-Philadelphia, the new speaker adding to the working majority of the House Democrats.

But for Shapiro, who is now pondering a run for the U.S. Senate in 2010, his big new role in the Obama campaign here is another sign of his growing influence.

But if Shapiro has become a key part of the Obama campaign, his close ally, mentor and friend, Gov. Ed Rendell has become the face and a big part of the brain trust of the Clinton campaign in Pennsylvania.

When Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., came to Montgomery County to tout Obama, he told Rendell that he saw him on cable TV every night as “the” Pennsylvania surrogate for Sen. Clinton.

When Clinton, D-N.Y., learned of Obama’s “bitter remarks,” her first response reflected Rendell’s advice. And Rendell has worked hard and mostly successfully to pick when and where Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and daughter Chelsea, will campaign. For example, Rendell got Clinton to postpone her first pre-primary visit to Pennsylvania until he could make sure that Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl were ready to join her at the podium and endorse her. Rendell also successfully lobbied dozens of mayors to endorse Clinton and has kept a bunch of mayors and congressmen who would have otherwise endorsed Obama, to remain neutral. So while Obama has Casey, U.S. Reps. Fattah, Joe Sestak and Patrick Murphy and Rep. Shapiro in his corner, Rendell has secured a majority of Pennsylvania elected officials at the level of state lawmaker and above to come out for Clinton. Rendell’s Pennsylvania pre-eminence in the Clinton campaign is such that the New York Times said Rendell dominated the campaign in his state more than any governor, even more than Ohio’s Ted Strickland, who was heavily credited with Clinton’s 10-point victory in his state.

Hillary Clinton

So with all this local flavor and the cable networks filling their airwaves with Shapiro and Ravenstahl debating Obama and Casey and Rendell debating Clinton, where do we stand a week out from next Tuesday’s primary?

Polls give Clinton a 6- to 10-point overall lead, and she has not dropped below 50 percent in the last three weeks. Obama has a simple demographic problem he has not yet figured out how to break -- he leads about 55-40 among voters under 45 years old but can’t get the majority of those older in Pennsylvania.

Clinton leads by about the same margin among voters over 45 years old. And that older group is nearly three of every five Pennsylvania Democrats, while the younger demographic is barely over two of each five Pennsylvania Democrats.

And that demographic trend has not basically changed during the last six weeks as Pennsylvania has had the undivided attention of the American political class, as its Democratic primary has been vigorously contested.

Obama came to Pennsylvania leading Clinton, 1,644 Democratic National Convention delegates to 1,511 for Clinton. Both need 2,025 to win the party’s nomination in August at its Denver convention.

Coming off losing blue-collar Ohio to Clinton by 10 points, Obama has poured resources into the Keystone State. He is outspending Clinton in advertising by a 3-1 margin and he took a six-day bus tour across the state and has made frequent visits since then to various regions of the state.

Clinton and her presidential husband and their daughter Chelsea have campaigned constantly and furiously, and managed to put Obama on the defensive for most of the primary. They outmanned him on the ground in the vast state to Pennsylvania by 3-1.

In fact, Obama in the final week leading up to the primary began to air two negative TV ads, the first negative TV ads he has aired in the entire campaign. One shows Clinton being booed in Pittsburgh when she went on the attack against Obama over his “recent comments.”

Insiders say Obama needs to get to at least 48 percent to impress super-delegates and keep Pennsylvania from giving Clinton any real momentum in the soon-to-follow primaries in North Carolina and Indiana and West Virginia.

For Clinton to be able to claim a Pennsylvania victory as meaningful she has to win by 10 percentage points or more, analysts say.

And the main advantage if she does that as she heads to North Carolina and Indiana is that she can say that Obama has not found a way to get voters to stop thinking his “bitter” remarks as arrogant and elitist.

Because with his delegate lead and big lead in the popular vote, Obama has to lose either every state left on the primary and caucus calendar, or all but one, and most of Clinton’s wins have to be double digits.

If Obama can win just two of the remaining seven primaries caucuses (not counting Guam), he will likely be his party’s nominee.

So Clinton’s goal in Pennsylvania is to reduce by 20 or more delegates Obama’s Democratic National Convention delegate lead, and to take a big chunk out of his popular vote lead.

If she can do that she is hoping super-delegates will perceive that as Obama lagging, while she peaks as we head into the final key Democratic primary states: in calendar order: North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico.

Go back to Insider Info

If you’re a Republican…
Read this story for coverage of candidates in key primaries

While Democrats are buzzing about the presidential primary, Republican voters are only really motivated to vote in two bitterly-contested, high-dollar congressional races, four state Senate races and a few dozen state House contests.

Both the 5th and the 10th Congressional district races follow a familiar pattern: Each pits a candidate and newcomer who is more tied to the pragmatic Specter-Ridge wing of the Pennsylvania GOP, against a more ideologically conservative candidate supported by the Club for Growth, Pat Toomey’s vehicle to elect hard-right “pro-growth” fiscal conservatives.

In the 5th District, which stretches from State College nearly to Erie, 32-year-old investment counselor Derek Walker, son of C. Alan Walker, a confidant and close ally of Govs. Tom Ridge and Dick Thornburgh, and Matt Shaner, scion of Shaner Hotels, lead the polls, each with about 20 percent support.

Walker and his father were strong supporters of U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., against Toomey in 2004, when Specter squeaked out a narrow win. Shaner was a strong supporter of Toomey.

Behind them are another two candidates, Jeff Stroehmann, scion of the bakery family and Centre County Republican chairman Glenn “G.T.” Thompson, both scoring double digits in the surveys.

Trapped in the single-digits of support, according to the polling, are five other candidates: Pastor Keith Richardson of Clarion; John Stroup, mayor of Clarion; GOP activist John Krupa, former Centre County Commissioner Chris Exarchos and Elk County Coroner Lou Radkowski.

There was a dramatic development in the race in the final days leading up to Tuesday’s primary. Walker, one of the two front-runners, is now under criminal investigation and is facing criminal charges based on an incident last summer involving his former girlfriend, Kathleen Ferry, a local teacher.

The Centre Daily Times on Thursday reported that Walker has been charged with “burglary and criminal trespass, both felonies, at the home of his former girlfriend, Kathleen Ferry. Walker was also charged with misdemeanors: criminal attempt, invasion of privacy, disorderly conduct and stalking.”

Walker on Friday said he would be “fully cleared of any allegations” and he vowed to stay in the race for Tuesday’s Republican nomination to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. John Peterson.

William Shaw, the Centre County District Attorney, said his office just finished its investigation and that the timing of any charges is not politically motivated.

For months, this has been considered a Walker v. Shaner race, since Shaner has already borrowed $1.2 million of his own money and spent it in this primary, and Walker expects to spend about $1 million himself.

Stroehmann, the third richest candidate in the race, expects to be out-spent by 10-1 or more, and hopes his big bus roaming the district, with a picture of him and a map of the district, will help him win.

Thompson, who moved out of the single-digits in polls after garnering the coveted endorsement of retiring U.S. Rep. John Peterson, R-Venango, is unknown in the west and center of the district and hopes Peterson’s support will change that. But the major spending of Walker and Shaner so far has given them the big edge in the west, where few voters know of any of the candidates who have not been deluging the airwaves. Thompson’s problem is that while Centre County is the biggest in the district, four candidates from there are splitting up its votes: Shaner, Walker from next-door Clearfield County, former Commissioner Exarchos and Thompson.

John Peterson

So Thompson shares the same hope as Stroehmann: that Walker and Shaner nuke each other in a blizzard of negative ads in the last 10 days of the campaign, so that GOP voters turn to Stroehmann or Thompson as the alternative.

Will Shaner and Walker nuke each other? They are certainly trying hard enough to do just that.

Walker’s ads that began to run Monday reminded voters that Shaner wrecked his car, abandoned it and refused to come to the door when police came to his house. Shaner later admitted he had been too drunk to drive safely and that he went home after the accident.

Shaner and the Club for Growth hit back with ads saying Walker changed his positions on issues. Then Walker put out a mailing about Shaner’s accident to likely GOP voters in the district.

On Wednesday, Shaner began to air a radio ad recounting newspaper stories that said Walker tried to break into the home of an ex-girlfriend in August 2007. And now, either Walker has been charged or might be charged criminally, if the Centre Daily Times is to be believed.

“How can he run for Congress and ask for votes when he is under investigation and if he wins the primary, could be charged with a serious crime?” Shaner told Capitolwire, an online news service in the state Capitol that covers Pennsylvania.

Walker is now saying that the investigation/charges is “totally politically motivated” coming as it did five days before the primary.

Walker contends that Shaner made up the charges, lied to police and submitted anonymous letters laying out the lies, and saying Walker had confessed the crime to him when two were out drinking in October 2007 before the Penn State-Michigan game in Ann Arbor. Shaner's staff denied that account.

Then the ex-girlfriend herself, Kathleen Ferry, who has ducked reporters for months, called Capitolwire, and came to Walker’s defense. She said of Shaner's charges: “Anyone who would spread such blatantly false rumors (just) days before an election is clearly politically motivated. Not only should they stop spreading these rumors but they should also step forward and offer Derek Walker and me an apology.”

Insiders believe Walker’s negative ads are hurting Shaner, but polling has not yet shown how much Shaner’s ads and efforts are hurting Walker, or if voters will be turned off to both of them and look to Stroehmann or Thompson instead.

The Rev. Richardson has called on both candidates to stop airing negative ads and concentrate on the issues, to position himself to benefit from all of the turmoil and any voters turned off by the catcalling and personal bile.

Plus, in a district considered reliably Republican, but where U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., won by a slender 264-vote margin over Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. -- while going on to lose statewide – the Shaner-Walker nuclear war could put this seat in play in the fall for Democrats.

Former newspaper reporter turned Iraq military enlistee Bill Cahir has raised the most money of three Democrats competing in that party’s primary. The former aide to former U.S. Sen. Harris Wofford is favored to win against the two lesser-known rivals, Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken and Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello.

In the 10th District, covering northeastern Pennsylvania, the Republican race is downright gentlemanly compared to the noisy combat in the 5th Congressional District.

Here the candidates are only accusing each other of business misdeeds, hiring illegal immigrants and being unable to win in the fall. The incumbent is first-term Democrat Chris Carney, who pulled an upset in beating scandal-plagued Don Sherwood in 2006 in this heavily Republican district. At least until last week, that’s when a new political issue surfaced about whether one of the candidates is truly anti-abortion as he now claims or whether he previously told a group of businessmen he was pro-choice. Dan Meuser who runs a wheelchair and assisted-living products manufacturing business is running against Chris Hackett, the owner of a temporary employment agency.

Chris Carney

Meuser is favored to win by a mid-single-digit margin. Meuser is the Specter supporter in this campaign, while Hackett, who has mostly given to local Democrats in the past, is the newly-minted Club for Growth candidate endorsed by its leader, Pat Toomey, himself a former Pennsylvania congressman.

This is another race where both candidates are spending big. The Club for Growth has poured $200,000 into the race behind Hackett. Meuser will top $1.4 million, and Hackett, $1.3 million, just about matching Hackett, counting the Club for Growth donor contributions to him.

Meuser is running as a practical fiscal conservative who does not support Social Security private investment accounts for younger workers, but does support securing individual, congressman-chosen grants, known as “earmarks,” at least until Congress bans them completely.

He says that he will not allow other districts to get earmarks but ban his constituents from receiving millions of dollars in such grants.

Hackett says Meuser is not a true conservative because real conservatives want to give younger workers private investment accounts to supplant Social Security and agree to neither accept nor seek any earmarks.

Hackett says Meuser will likely become part of the same old problem in Washington, D.C., not part of the solution.

The latest flap centers on a meeting that Hackett held with four area businessmen almost a year ago in May 2007. In an article published by Capitolwire on Friday it reported that Hackett told the four men he was “more pro-choice than pro-life” All four men in that conversation later became supporters of Meuser.

Hackett called the uproar “a last-minute smear” stating that he has always been pro-life and that he has the endorsement of major state and national pro-life organizations.

Earlier in the campaign, both candidates have dredged up every mistake either’s business made, every time any government sued or scolded the other’s business.

Here, unlike the 5th, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., weighed in for Meuser, with mailings and TV ads, and more than provided a counterweight for Toomey and the Club for Growth.

The other question now is whether Hackett has banged up Meuser enough to damage his chances to beat Carney. Carney has many Northeast Pennsylvania Republicans worried by his conservative Democratic voting record, charisma and charm. Many think Carney may be able to beat Meuser because he has taken the district by storm and worked it like a demon.

Also in 2006, in this district which runs from north of Scranton to Williamsport and points north, the strongest Democrat you could run is Bob Casey Jr., who on a statewide basis won 58 percent of the to crush Santorum.

But Santorum, in a district where he had to defend his unpopular book, his asking Pennsylvania taxpayers to pay for his kids' cyber schooling in Virginia, and all the other baggage he carried after 12 years, beat Casey in the 10th in 2006.

So as good as Carney is, this will be a close race in the fall.

In the state Senate, there are numerous primaries, most resulting from the retirement of incumbents.

One is the 17th District in Montgomery County where Connie Williams, the Hess oil heiress, is exiting public life. Both parties want this seat badly.

Democrats will nominate state Rep. Daylin Leach, D-Montgomery in this seat, which now has about 16,000 more Democrats than Republicans.

In the GOP primary, Lower Merion Township Supervisor Lance Rogers, 33, is facing off against Radnor Township Supervisor Lisa Paolino, 45.

Earlier this week, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that Rogers, an attorney, accused Paolino of “illegal campaign tactics” because she placed a political flyer on cars with car-wash coupons attached.

Rogers said: "At the very least, this is a critical lapse of judgment and could reasonably be viewed as an illegal attempt (by her) to buy votes."

According to the Inquirer, Paolino replied that Rogers’ claims were "totally fallacious … He should check his facts. There's no 'influencing an election outcome,' just an advertisement in a high-traffic area that's centrally located.”

The newspaper reported that “a state attorney general's spokesman said the issue had been referred for investigation.”

Paolino said Rogers is an “opportunist who has changed his party affiliations several times,” the newspaper reported, because he was elected to the Lower Merion supervisors as an independent and was previously registered as a Democrat. Rogers also made a claim that Paolino voted several times to raise taxes.

“My opponent has an ad on TV where she talks about holding the line on taxes, and you can't say one thing and do another. This is a perfect example."

Paolino also had another setback when a Montgomery County judge on Friday ruled that a sample ballot being distributed by her campaign was misleading in claiming she was the Republican endorsed candidate for the Senate seat when Rogers had that endorsement.

The judge ruled that all unsent ballots be seized and that no more be made, saying they were so similar to the official Republican endorsement ballot that confusion was inevitable.

In Lancaster County, there is a four-way GOP primary to replace retiring State Sen. Gib Armstrong. Insiders say this is really a three-way race among West Lampeter Twp. local official Lloyd Smucker, former County Commissioner Paul Thibault and County Recorder of Deeds Steve MacDonald.

MacDonald, who is running as a conservative reformer, has pledged not to take a state pension, pay raise or perks and to limit himself to three terms at most

Smucker is drawing votes from Thibault that his campaign has attacked Smucker for saying Smucker held down taxes as a supervisor in the township. Thibault’s staff pointed out that Smucker voted to double the emergency services tax from $26 to $52. Smucker said the Lancaster Intelligencer misquoted him, and that he only boasted about not raising property taxes.

As we will see in the other two state Senate races below, potential exists for the most conservative candidate, MacDonald, to win because two establishment candidates, Smucker and Thibault, along with businessman Bill Neff, may split that more moderate vote, although in Lancaster County, moderate is when you think Ronald Reagan wasn’t conservative enough.

Surprisingly, polls show Smucker pulling ahead of early favorite Thibault and by a sufficient margin to make him the likely winner, unless Thibault and Neff draw enough from him to give MacDonald the victory.

In nearby Franklin County, Sen. Terry Punt’s retirement has led to a four-way GOP battle, with Cathy Cresswell, presently a state Senate aide, running a surprisingly strong campaign that has made some waves, and made some observers believe that as the only female she could win.

But most Capitol and county insiders say Richard Alloway II will win. One sign is that he got big donations from Sens. Bob Regola, R-Westmoreland, a close ally of Senate President Pro Tem Joe Scarnati, R- Jefferson, and also from Sen. Jake Corman, R-Centre.

Meanwhile, Cresswell got a five-figure donation from her boss, Sen. Jane Earll, R-Erie. Also running are Bob Curley and Jim Taylor.

And finally anybody who tells you that well-funded negative campaigning doesn't work needs to watch the results from the Lycoming, Union and Bradford County state Senate district from which Sen. Roger Madigan is retiring.

State Rep. Steve Cappelli, R-Williamsport was the early favorite, but Cappelli’s long-time feud with former state Rep. Brett Feese, R-Lycoming, helped Cappelli’s foes to recruit attorney Gene Yaw to run against Cappelli.

As in Lancaster, the Lycoming County establishment battle between Yaw and Cappelli could spell opportunity for a third candidate, Doug McLinko, a Bradford County commissioner.

McLinko has a political consultant with a strong record in three-way races against an incumbent who voted for the pay-raise: former state Rep. Jeff Coleman, R-Armstrong.

Coleman was the strategist behind John Eichelberger’s’ 2006 upset defeat of Senate President Pro Tem Robert Jubelirer, R-Blair, the longest serving top Senate leader in state history.

Cappelli, some GOP insiders note, has three strikes against him: He voted for the controversial pay raise of 2005 and the equally unpopular tolling of Interstate 80 as well as Gov. Ed Rendell’s personal income tax hike back in 2003. Still, the former Williamsport mayor has cast these kinds of tough votes and survived.

But that was in his old House seat, which is dominated by the city of Williamsport, where he was a popular mayor. Now, three-quarters of the voters are being introduced to him as the guy who voted to toll I-80, raise the state income tax and raise state lawmaker and official pay.

Some insiders think Cappelli and Yaw will fight to a draw in Lycoming and McLinko will get enough conservatives in Union and Bradford to pull off a win.

In a debate on April 15, McLinko and Cappelli both complained about negative campaigning by Yaw. Both said a push poll asked voters who they were supporting, then gave out negative information on them, but none about Yaw. Yaw denied any involvement with such a push survey.

Both Cappelli and McLinko earlier this year had criticized a negative “push poll” that was conducted.

“The campaign waged against me is nothing short of shameful,” he said of Yaw, according to the Towanda Daily and Sunday Review. Yaw replied: “I’m sorry Mr. McLinko had 20 tax liens,” the newspaper reported. “He did, that’s a fact.”

He also said it was Cappelli, not himself, who voted to toll I-80, a move unpopular in the district, where many residents use I-80 frequently.

But don’t count Cappelli out. He has a long history of seeming to get into a political pickle with voters, then winning anyway, and while Yaw ranks as the clear favorite in polls, and is the front-runner, McLinko or Cappelli could surprise. But Yaw will likely win, because he has negatively defined his opponents but skillfully used mail and ads to keep his own image positive.