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INSIDER INFO -- FEBRUARY 2008

Political VIP Interview
Former Gov. Tom Ridge is resolute in his strong support of long-time pal, GOP presidential hopeful John McCain

Fight preparations
After March 4, both Clinton and Obama camps are ready to pull out all stops in Pennsylvania

Primary concern
Two Republican state senators tagged as vulnerable escape intra-party challenges

Big gamble or not?
Rendell administration faces tough questioning from GOP lawmakers on spending from Lottery Fund






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Political VIP Interview
Former Gov. Tom Ridge is resolute in his strong support of long-time pal, GOP presidential hopeful John McCain

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge enjoys a 25-year friendship with presumptive presidential nominee U.S. Sen. John McCain, R. Arizona. The two were both first elected to Congress in 1982 and they became fast friends because of their shared Vietnam experience.

Ridge, the first non-officer elected to Congress out of the Vietnam era, was an infantry sergeant on combat patrol when he won a Bronze Star for Valor in Vietnam. McCain, a Navy jetfighter pilot, spent five years in the infamous “Hanoi Hilton” prison camp after his plane was shot down by the North Vietnamese.

Gov. Ridge – he prefers to be called that instead of Mr. Secretary from when he was President Bush’s Cabinet – served as the first to head the newly-formed U.S. Department of Homeland Security. “You earn the title, Governor, because the people have elected you. You’re not simply appointed,” he explained.

Now the president and CEO of Ridge Global, a Washington-based consulting firm, Ridge is one of several co-chairman for the McCain for President Campaign. He was interviewed after a recent Republican State Committee meeting in Harrisburg at which the Pennsylvania GOP endorsed Sen. McCain after his string of Super Tuesday victories.

 

Insider: After Super Tuesday, every one knows that John McCain had turned his campaign around. When did you as a co-chairman realize that something was about the change, about to happen?

Ridge: John has been my friend for 25 years. When I went to visit him last summer, after his campaign had imploded, he said he was disappointed, but that he had been through worse things in his life and laid out a strategy that included winning in New Hampshire and South Carolina and staging a comeback.

I went to New Hampshire three times for him last year and there was a noticeable difference each time. The size of the crowds increased. The enthusiasm got greater and greater. I think it had to do with his doing more than 100 town meetings and that people who knew him and respected him there since his 2000 win were still for him.

Insider: How did you weather that period from last summer until New Hampshire?

Ridge: We all took encouragement from the upbeat, positive, relentless engagement of the candidate. His work ethic and energy were phenomenal. He was outspent by some of his rivals three or four to one, but they didn’t out-campaign him. Plus the issue of character, conviction and courage played a greater and greater role as actual voting neared and the early polls faded over time. He never wavered, he never doubted, he never gave up. Unless you understand how the Vietnam experience shaped John, you probably can’t appreciate that.

Insider: Approaching the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary, do you expect to be here a lot campaigning for Sen. McCain?

Ridge: I’ll do whatever I can to help my friend get elected. We’ll be back before and after the primary, I’m sure.

Insider: What about the money machine? What do you see yourself doing between now and the convention?

Ridge: I don’t know. Whatever they ask me to do. John’s role now will be to unify the party as best he can and then catch up on financing (with the Democrats). We need to be more aggressive in fund-raising. Most of the attention will be on building a campaign organization and unifying the party.

Insider: Have you been surprised by the amount of money the two Democratic front-runners are raising?

Ridge: I am astonished, bewildered and, frankly, envious. They both are drawing tremendous crowds. You have to admire the unprecedented response people have had to the Obama campaign both in attendance and money. Regardless of your political persuasion, you have to regard him as a political phenomenon. He’s brought excitement to that party that is beyond any measurable means of comparison.

Still, having acknowledged all that, this is still a race that Republicans can win with a unified party and a candidate who can reach across the political divide and attract voters from the other party. If we unite ourselves around the common cause of a Republican victory, I think because of John’s appeal across the aisle we can still win this.

Insider: How would you suggest Sen. McCain campaign in southeastern Pennsylvania, an area that you won, but other Republicans have lost in recent elections, including President Bush?

Ridge: First, I think it’s to John’s advantage that the Democrats in southwestern Pennsylvania are much more independent minded in their voting than they are in Philadelphia and some of those communities. His record and the fact that he is a strong fiscal conservative but not an extremist will appeal to the folks in the southwest.

His status as a war hero and his qualities will appeals to both Republicans and Democrats in all areas of the state. Just like New Hampshire, he needs to be there; people (will) get to see him, get to know him and appreciate his character, his conviction and his courage. But also, he’ll need to rely on surrogates like me at times.

But when I was campaigning with him in New York, he said he is not going to conceded any of these blue states to the Democrats. He is going to campaign hard in these states. I don’t think we have to convince him to come to Pennsylvania. I think he’ll be here.

Insider: Looking ahead to the general election and Pennsylvania’s key role in presidential contests, what do you expect?

Ridge: I anticipate a hotly contested, hard-fought, narrowly won presidential election, both here in Pennsylvania and across the country. I think Pennsylvania will be one of the top eight states that will determine the outcome of the election.

Insider: Having already served in the Bush Cabinet, would you at all consider going into the McCain administration if he prevailed. I’m sure you’ve been asked that a lot.

Ridge: Yes, and I have avoided answering the question and I’ll continue to do the same. It would depend on where I am professionally and what the opportunity would be. So I learned a long time ago to never say never. Secondly, it will depend on whether I want to get back in the public sector. It’s difficult to say in February what I might be thinking in six to eight months.

Insider: Because you have a business in D.C. and a house in (Chevy Chase, MD), many Pennsylvanians might think you’ve “left” the state.

Ridge: No, I still have a house in Erie that I consider my primary residence. We get up there on holidays; my family spends its summers up there. I go up there periodically on weekends to see my family (younger brother, attorney David Ridge and his children) with or without my own family.

First, Pennsylvania is a state that gave me the opportunity to serve as governor and I’ll forever be grateful for that. My home community of Erie has always been a comfortable place for me to slide into, where I’m not so much Congressman, Governor or Secretary, I’m just Tom or ‘Guv.’ That’s nice to get out of the bubble of Washington and go back to where real people live. My family and I enjoy it.

When I was a congressman I had a listed home number for almost 12 years and I don’t think I got more than two or three crank phone calls in 12 years and I got at least a couple of dozen phone calls with information I needed to get as a congressman.


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Fight preparations
After March 4, both Clinton and Obama camps are ready to pull out all stops in Pennsylvania

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the two remaining Democrats in the presidential race, are girding for an extension of their intra-party battle into Pennsylvania.

Both candidates are currently concentrating on the March 4 primary elections in the large states of Texas and Ohio and the smaller states of Rhode Island and Vermont. The races in Texas and Ohio are particularly important to Clinton’s hopes of keeping her campaign alive after losing 11 consecutive primaries of caucuses since Super Tuesday to Obama.

But behind the scenes, both campaigns are laying the groundwork for the April 22nd primary in the Keystone State just in case a Clinton comeback on March 4 resuscitates her campaign.

Clinton is considered the favorite in Pennsylvania because of her and her husband, former President Bill Clinton’s, ties to many major Democrats here.

But the example of one long-time friend and supporter of the New York state senator sets an example of just what her campaign is up against.

Former state Rep. Ruth Rudy, D-Centre, a super -delegate because of her leadership of a Democratic national women’s group, told her local newspaper she was supporting Clinton – but left open the opinion of changing her mind if Clinton loses the March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio.

That shows how much even loyal Clinton followers realize Clinton has to win one or probably both of those big primaries to remain viable for the Democratic nomination.

 
Hillary Clinton

Even President Clinton has said if his wife does not win the Texas and Ohio primaries, she will not be her party’s nominee for president.

But while both sides are concentrating on those two big fights next Tuesday, they are also getting their soldiers in line for Pennsylvania’s primary which will have seven long weeks after March 4 with both campaigns and candidates expected to visit early and often.

Tim Russert of NBC News has said there is no scenario for Clinton to win the Democratic nomination without winning in this state.

And both campaigns are bringing in big guns. Tony Podesta, who oversaw Gov. Ed Rendell’s re-election campaign and the Kerry campaign here in 2004, will be Clinton’s Keystone primary overseer. Rendell himself is her top campaigner, and many of his top fund-raisers are working hard for Clinton.

But Obama has already picked up major support. The Philadelphia Daily News recently reviewed the Pennsylvania supporters of both campaigns. It noted that Obama personally called Philadelphia Building Trades Council President Pat Gillespie the night before the union endorsed.

The next day that big powerful southeastern union, which has been publicly criticized for failing to give enough job opportunities for blacks, endorsed Obama.

 
Barack Obama

So even in February, Gillespie’s union was worth a 15-minute phone call from Obama. A phone call can certainly make a difference. Gov. Rendell, who wanted to remain neutral, was talked into endorsing earlier than he had hoped to, because of a personal call from President Clinton.

The Daily News reports that the Obama campaign here will be run by “political director Nicole Price and field specialist Jeremy Bird, both veterans of the Obama campaigns in South Carolina and Maryland. Washington-based consultant Tom Lindenfeld, who managed the field efforts in former Mayor John Street's successful campaigns has relocated to Philadelphia for the duration.”

That quiet side of the campaign is about to end, though, Rendell’s media guru and consultant, Neil Oxman, told the newspaper that after polls close on March 4, “Four million people will come here that Wednesday morning. Every heavyweight in both campaigns will be here."

Already working for Clinton are Rendell, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, ex-Mayor John Street, Democratic State Committee Chairman T.J. Rooney, Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, Congressman Joe Sestak and others.

Obama’s list is smaller, but growing every day. In addition to Gillespie and some other major labor leaders, it includes Congressman Chaka Fattah and Patrick Murphy, Philadelphia Councilman Jim Kenney and western Pennsylvania super-delegate Leon Lynch.

Adding Fattah means Greg Naylor, the key strategist in the kind of black voter turnout effort Obama needs in Philadelphia to win (few strategists think Clinton will win either of the two majority-black Congressional districts in Philadelphia).

Also in the Obama camp are two political operatives who are close to Gov. Rendell but not backing Clinton. Lawyer lobbyist David Sweet, who was Rendell’s 2002 campaign manager, and former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel, also a lobbyist, both support Obama.

Some key players are still waiting. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl and Pittsburgh Congressman Mike Doyle have opted to stick together and not endorse until all three are ready to go together, delivering western Pennsylvania’s most potent Democratic political machine to their choice, if they make one.

Both campaigns are well-funded, although many Democrats remain stunned that Obama is poised to become the most successful political fund-raiser in American history, breaking President George W. Bush’s record of $175 million, once he raises another $25 million or so. Clinton remains well-funded, but Obama is a phenomenon.

Rendell, his close ally Alan Kessler and attorney Mark Aronchick – both Kessler and Aronchick are on Clinton’s national fund-raising – are working hard to keep Clinton’s machine funded in the Keystone State.

Obama has one of Philadelphia’s most famous and generous donors and fund-raisers to liberals, Peter Buttenwieser, and attorneys Mark Alderman and Christopher Lewis, according to the Daily News.

Aronchick told the newspaper: “We're determined and committed, doubling down on our effort. We're waiting for the press to even the scrutiny out, and think they will. We believe she's the better candidate and will be the better president.”

But Obama’s campaign continues to ride a wave. For example, both campaigns filed delegates to ensure they can pick their delegates who are awarded, by congressional district, by the results of the April 22 primary.

Obama’s campaign filed more delegate names and managed to win favorable stories both nationally and in Philadelphia, suggesting the Clinton campaign did a weak job in that key field effort.

Some even suggested that Gov. Ed Rendell’s two-day extension of the filing deadline was partly motivated to help the Clinton team fill out its delegate slate.

But a review of the delegates filed by both campaigns by the Internet news service, Capitolwire, showed that by the original deadline, the Clinton campaign had filed more delegates in every Congressional district but one, than they could possibly win, even if they won 60 percent of the vote in every Congressional district on April 22, an outcome considered very, very unlikely.

And in the one district where Clinton could win one more delegate than her campaign filed for, if she did win that delegate, her mistake would be corrected at Democratic State Committee’s June meeting. At that meeting, national rules would require the appointment of a Clinton delegate to that post, even if the campaign had not filed one, which it ultimately did.

So while there was no Clinton mistake, the fervor and zeal and excitement of the Obama campaign persuaded many in the media that there was such a mistake.

As one Obama advocate said: “So imagine what will happen when we vote.”

A Clinton insider said: “Hillary will win here. Period.”

Then, he paused and added: “If she makes it to here.”


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Primary concern
Two Republican state senators tagged as vulnerable escape intra-party challenges

Toward the end of last year, 2008 looked like it would be another rough election season for the dominant state Senate Republican Caucus.

But now, with the candidate filing date passed for primary challengers, it looks like sunny days as the two GOP Senate incumbents believed most likely to draw primary foes, didn’t get any.

Senate President Pro Tem Joe Scarnati, R-Jefferson, and Sen. Bob Regola, R-Westmoreland, showed that political troubles only matter if voters back home care about them.

And they did so after the 2006 primaries, the biggest Election Day leadership bloodbath in the state Senate’s history. Not only did Senate President Pro Tem Robert Jubelirer, R-Blair, lose his primary narrowly, but Senate Majority Leader David J. Brightbill, R-Lebanon, was overwhelmingly defeated that same night.

In all, there are five retiring incumbents of the 25 Senate seats up for grabs this year. So the fact that none of the nine Senate Republican incumbents drew a primary challenger this year is startling. Especially when Sen. Vince Fumo, D-Philadelphia, drew three primary challengers as he faces a federal trial.

Part of the reason is that political attention was drawn to an unusually high number of seats opened by retirements. But most of it was sheer campaigning.

The pay raise of 2005 was the driving factor in the 2006 primary's marquee defeats, and while it became a non-factor in the 2007 judicial races, observers wondered if it would join with another issue to threaten Jubelirer’s successor.

 
Joe Scarnati


Bob Regola

Scarnati not only voted for the pay raise but he followed it up with another controversial vote last year in favor of a bill to toll Intestate 80, the major east-west artery of his vast northwestern Pennsylvania district.

And he defended that plan outright for months, including against attacks launched by his long-time political rival, Congressman John Peterson, R-Venango, who has led the opposition to tolling of that intestate highway.

But with opposition to I-80 tolling growing and growing, Scarnati said he would like to find an alternative to the bill he voted for. But he insisted he would not support changing the plan until a replacement transportation revenue source was found.

So Scarnati voted for the pay raise bill that toppled Jubelirer, the longest-serving Senate top leader in state history, and voted for a tolling bill that is overwhelmingly unpopular in his own district.

And Peterson, his political GOP arch-enemy, was actively recruiting an opponent to defeat him. But Scarnati works his district hard and skillfully, specifically to discourage challengers.

Then Peterson handed Scarnati a gift – the veteran lawmaker announced that he was retiring. So instead of what even conservatives said would be a tough race against a popular incumbent state senator, an open congressional seat with no clear front-runner emerged and sucked up all the political oxygen in northwestern Pennsylvania.

“Everybody and his brother ran for Congress and nobody ran against Joe,” said one conservative consultant. “There was no grassroots sentiment to boot him out that anyone could find, and there was another job better-paying, more prestigious job to run for.”

Since Scarnati represents a loyally-GOP district, it means he will not face a serious Election Day challenge until 2012, at the earliest.

In Westmoreland County, Regola also had a case of rumored opponents evaporating when it was time to run.

He is still facing a trial on perjury charges in the death of a teenage boy who was ruled to have killed himself with a handgun owned by Regola, while house-sitting for the Regolas. Regola is accused of not properly securing the gun and then lying about its storage and availability to his son and the boy who died.

Yet despite that charge, no Republican filed to challenge him in the primary.

When one GOP local official tried, he was met with a clear message: “No one is going be for you. We’re for Bob. You can’t win.”

Politically active Republicans in the district said Regola’s work ethic, availability and personal charm made them think the charges against him were part of a political vendetta, not a result of a fair investigation.

Not only did Regola feel reassured, but he staged two big events to show his supporters they had plenty of company: a pig roast over the summer, with 1,500 attendees, and a campaign kick-off rally with more than 700 attendees.

“At both of those events, anybody on the fence saw the kind of support and numbers Bob had,” said one local elected official. “Bob got the right people at those events saying the right things, not only to him and from the podium, but acting as spin doctors at the picnic table to other supporters.”

Regola still needs to be acquitted on the charges because a conviction means he will have to resign from the Senate. And he also faces an almost certain tough challenge from a Democrat this fall.

The Regola race remains the top Senate GOP incumbent district targeted by the Democrats. Two Westmoreland County Democrats have filed for the chance to oppose Regola, chiropractor Tony Bompiani and attorney Chris Huffman.

Huffman won a narrow vote (82-to-79) for the county party endorsement despite Bompiani having the backing of four top Democrats: County commissioners Tom Ceraso and Tom Balya, state Rep. Tom Tangretti and Allen Kukovich, the former state senator whom Regola beat in 2004 to win the Senate seat.

Huffman criticized Bompiani at the endorsement meeting for donating $250 to Regola’s 2004 campaign. Bompiani explained he did so at the time because both were then members of the board of directors of the Hempfield Area School District.

Whether he ends of facing Bompiani or Huffman, Regola nonetheless dodged a bullet when no primary opponent materialized. A primary race would have made the fall campaign even more difficult, and Regola made it disappear through sheer hard work and skillful politicking.


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Big gamble or not?
Rendell administration faces tough questioning from GOP lawmakers on spending from Lottery Fund

If he gets his way, Gov. Ed Rendell will finish the next fiscal year spending down about $442 million of a surplus in the state Lottery Fund over a two-year period.

That has House Republicans hopping mad and asking a lot of questions about how the administration could allow a $476 million 2006-07 year-end balance turn into a measly $35 million by July of 2009.

Budget Secretary Mike Masch says he’s not worried about the draw-down because traditionally his estimates have been conservative, and the state typically ends the fiscal year with more in the Lottery Fund than expected.

But the lottery has seen two years of declining revenues, and isn’t expecting much growth in 2008-09. While Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf is predicting a big boost to the fund in 2009-10, legislative Republicans are asking what will happen if that doesn’t pan out.

During a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing this week, Masch said: “We are absolutely committed to maintaining the solvency of the Lottery Fund. We, in our first five years in office, did a lot to increase revenue generation that enabled us to do program expansion. We need to continue to grow the revenue side so that we have sufficient money to sustain the programs as we move forward.”

 
Mike Masch

House Appropriations Committee Minority Chairman Mario Civera, R-Delaware, led House Republicans in grilling Wolf and Aging Secretary Nora Dowd Eisenhower on the issue when they appeared before his committee last week.

“We need to know what we’re doing here,” Civera said at Wolf’s hearing. “This is a very crucial situation. We need answers before we go any further.”

Wolf attributed the decline in lottery sales to the broader economic downturn and denied suggestions from House Republicans that legalized slot-machine gambling was cutting into the lottery customer base..

 
Nora Dowd Eisenhower

“If I thought slots was really part of the problem for the last year, I’d acknowledge it and try to get my arms around it,” Wolf said. “But I don’t have any indication statistically or otherwise that it is.”

With casinos, he said, “People go to a venue and spend the money. The lottery is much more of an impulse item. It’s on the counter in the stores. People come in to buy something” and end up buying a lottery ticket.

But Rep. Doug Reichley, R-Lehigh, pointed out that lottery sales began to dip when slots casinos were opening in the state.

Lottery revenue actually began declining in 2006-07, and is expected to continue to drop this year. But projected net lottery sales increases of 1.6 percent in 2008-09 and 10.5 percent in 2009-10 are what Wolf wanted to focus on.

That prompted Reichley to ask: “Don’t your projections seem to be a roll of the dice? You’re flying in the face of data that shows lottery revenues going down as more gaming comes online.”

Masch and Wolf insisted that the lottery’s aggressive business plan – focusing on improving sales technology, creating more games with jackpots that grow over time and promoting new instant games, among other things – will boost the lottery to meet its future revenue goals.

Civera, though, isn’t convinced. “I’m not so sure it’s going to drive the numbers up as much as he thinks it’s going to,” he told the Harrisburg-based Capitolwire Internet news service last week.

The whittling away of the fund’s surplus is partly due to the slow growth in revenues, but more spending is also to blame.

In the 2008-09 budget proposal, for instance, the administration is proposing to spend $366 million more from the Lottery Fund than it is projected to take in. The same thing is happening in 2007-08, to the tune of $175 million.

The 2008-09 spending spike is being driven by a $58 million increase in the Property Tax and Rent Rebate Program, although that is funded by slot-machine gaming funds deposited into the Lottery Fund. Another $35 million jump in the cost of the PACE pharmaceutical assistance plan is due to a pull back of federal funding for the Medicare Part D prescription drug program.

Masch says he’s not worried about the dwindling Lottery Fund balance.

“I’m comfortable with it as long as the budget expenditures are conservative and the revenue estimates are conservative,” Masch told Capitolwire.

For instance, in the 2006-07 fiscal year, Masch said, the projected year-end balance for the Lottery Fund was $372 million, but the fund actually ended the year with nearly $477 million.

He added that the spending down of the Lottery Fund’s surplus is “not sustainable, unless we accelerate revenue growth. If you look at our five-year projection, on the revenue side you see that is our intent.”

Advocates for the state’s senior citizens, meanwhile, are criticizing the Rendell administration for continuing to use the Lottery Fund to cover Department of Aging administrative expenses and Medicaid costs, at the same time direct service programs for the elderly are under-funded and have waiting lists.

Sen. Pat Vance, R-Cumberland, raised similar concerns with Budget Secretary Mike Masch during Masch’s Senate Appropriations Committee hearing.

“The lottery, as you know, is showing decreased growth, decreased revenue, and yet it’s carrying the load for a lot of other programs not directly related to the lottery,” Vance said.

Masch, however, downplayed these funding choices, pointing to the PACE and Property Tax and Rent Rebate Program funding increases.

Masch’s next stop is the House Appropriations Committee, next Wednesday, where Republicans are planning to take him anew over the issue.

Civera has said the big concern for House Republicans is what will happen to senior programs come 2009-10, if the projected revenue growth doesn’t materialize and the fund’s surplus is gone.

“We need clear, significant answers here on that,” he said at Wolf’s hearing. “There’s a lot that depends on that.”


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