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Respected Rep. Matt Ryan, R-Delaware County, is the longest serving Speaker of the House but will he carry on? 

The Capitol is once again atwitter with rumors of House Speaker Matt Ryan's retirement due to the illnesses that Ryan has battled for years, but which have increasingly sidelined him during the last 12 months, including treatment for stomach cancer. Insiders say Ryan wants to return, but has given himself a short time span to determine if it's time for him to go. 

While many are saddened by the idea of the potential departure of the popular lawmaker-the longest-serving speaker in state history-more are fixated on what will happen next if he does decide to go. 

Two ideas predominate, each predicated on whether House Majority Leader John Perzel takes a "promotion" to speaker or whether he stays in his current head gladiator role. 

First, if Perzel would choose to move to speaker, he likely would retain many of his present powers, following the "strong speaker" pattern of the legendary late Jim Manderino of Westmoreland County. If Perzel chooses the speakership, it is possible someone in the GOP caucus could emerge to challenge House Minority Whip Sam Smith, R-Jefferson County, for the majority leadership. 

Second, if Perzel would choose to remain in his present position of power, there could be an election for speaker, not majority leader. 

If the election is for majority leader, Smith has a clear advantage on his obvious challengers, most notably House Appropriations Chairman David Argall, R-Schuylkill. 

But if instead, it's the speakership that is open, other candidates with more elder statesmen or stateswoman profiles will emerge, including Rep. Patricia Vance, R-Silver Spring Township. The biggest losers if Ryan steps down: 

• John Perzel, who will have a tough decision to make and any choice he makes-forgoing the speaker's gavel or staying put-will likely leave him less happy or less powerful than he is right now. 

• Philadelphia's southwestern suburbs: Nobody was going to smite Delaware and Chester County Republicans that hard as long as Ryan was around. But after their poor performances in the fall elections, if Ryan goes, look for vengeful assaults on the modest level of GOP patronage those counties still have. 

• Capitol historic preservation: The state Capitol shines like a diamond now, because of Ryan's loving care, and the tremendous investments he has put into it, and in maintaining the renovations. That cause will lose its greatest champion in decades, and everyone who passes through its halls will be the poorer for that. 

• Ed Rendell: If Perzel is no longer running the House with Matt Ryan as the occasional voice of reason, it becomes that much harder for the rancorous lower chamber to come to grips with Rendell's proposals. Insiders say Rendell is hoping Ryan's ailments disappear one more time, so the new governor can deal with a stable power base in the House. Regardless of what happens to Ryan, Perzel is the House powerhouse. But without Ryan, Rendell gets more uncertainty, a quantity he just doesn't need right now.

If there's such a thing as a Corman Caucus, it may hold the key to Governor Rendell's legislative success or failure 

The Corman caucus, named for the young state senator from State College, got its name from an off-handed joke by a top lobbyist. 

But it's no comedy how this group of mostly moderate Republicans might figure into the success or failure of Governor Ed Rendell's reform plans this year. 

This loose grouping of mostly newer senators includes Senators Charlie Dent (R-Lehigh), Tommy Tomlinson (R-Bucks), Don White (R-Indiana), Mary Jo White (R-Venango), Ted Erickson (R-Delaware), Rob Wonderling (R-Montgomery) and its namesake, Senator Jake Corman (R-Centre). Corman is the son of former state Sen. Doyle Corman who was the longtime holder of the seat until he retired and his son ran. 

Other than Mary Jo White and Corman, this is a newer group of moderate senators many of whom uttered campaign promises similar to Rendell's, regarding education spending and property tax reform.

Sen. Jim Rhoades (R-Schuylkill) while not close to the Corman caucus, is another moderate, pro-education Republican who has his roots as a teacher and school administrator. Like Tomlinson and the more conservative Corman, he has already publicly said that he would vote to increase taxes for educating spending, if Rendell and the Senate GOP can agree on how the money is spent.            

Corman is at the center of this group partly due to his people skills and a natural ability to lead. Praised by Senate leaders as a good vote-counter with already-good relationships on both sides of the aisle, Corman could end up helping Rendell strike a deal. 

Two hurdles await any such deal: First, Corman politically and personally, is a lot closer to U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, the once conservative firebrand, than he is to Ed Rendell, the former two-term mayor of liberal and Democratic Philadelphia. 

Corman has the nickname Santorum's "Little Brother" because his parents are close to Santorum (dad, Doyle, employed Santorum on his Senate staff in the 1980s and mom, Betsy, helps run the Santorum statewide campaigns) and the younger Corman was on Santorum's payroll for a period. So if Corman ends up being a key player for Rendell's programs, he can expect a fair degree of telephone flack from Santorum. The toughest part for Corman would be the potential of having to vote for a higher personal income tax, which he, Rhoades and Tomlinson all conclude is probably necessary to do property tax reform. 

So while some moderates believe Corman is a responsible leader who is getting ready for an education-boosting compromise, some conservatives believe he is simply offering a cooperative tone now, only to make his later rejection of Rendell's plan seem more newsworthy. Corman is bright enough to make either of these theories come to pass, but it is unlikely he is intentionally setting Rendell up for failure. 

At his heart, Corman has a strong conservative ideological core, and it's not certain whether Rendell will bend far enough to bring along the votes of Corman, the Whites and others who might put enough pressure on the Senate leadership to get a bill passed.

Governor Rendell hints at higher taxes in talk to newspaper editors 

Governor Ed Rendell generally has good press relations with reporters, but more importantly with their bosses-the editors and publishers of Pennsylvania's daily newspapers. Based on his campaign platform brimming with ideas and his track record in Philadelphia, all but two newspapers in the state endorsed him for governor last fall over Republican Mike Fisher, the Attorney General of the Commonwealth. 

So it came as no surprise that the newly minted Democratic governor would come into the newspaper crowd and start to drop broad hints about the potential need for a tax increase to make the numbers work in his first budget. We will know for sure on March 4, when Rendell is scheduled to release his first budget to cover the fiscal year from July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004. 

To nearly everyone present at the Jan. 28 speech, Rendell appeared to be setting the stage for the introduction of a tax increase both to balance a deficit-ridden state budget and to pay for the education and property tax reform proposals on which the Philadelphian campaigned for governor. 

Rendell used the phrase, "grim and grimmer" to describe his staff's assessment of the latest budget numbers. "Now don't go writing or saying that I'm going to raise taxes, because I'm not sure yet," Rendell scolded the collective journalists. "I just got here, folks. I inherited this mess." 

State Sen. Vince Fumo, Rendell's fellow Philadelphia Democrat and head of the Appropriations Committee for the Senate Democrats, didn't mince words like the governor did. He held a news conference Feb. 4 and told reporters, "I see no other way to solve this problem but for a tax hike. This is going to be solved, and it's going to be solved with a tax increase and Republicans are going to vote for it." 

A new state budget is supposed to be passed by the legal deadline of June 30 but Fumo went so far as to advise his fellow lawmakers not to schedule vacation time or trips in July. The last time there was a large state budget crisis in 1991 a new state spending plan was not passed until early August, weeks after the June 30 deadline. 

Rendell told the newspaper editors that the deficit could grow as high as $2.3 or $2.4 billion by June 30, the end of the fiscal year. 

But House Majority Leader John Perzel told the same group a day later that the mess is not that bad. The Northeast Philadelphia Republican claimed the deficit is closer to $600 or $700 million-a gap that he insisted could be closed without raising taxes. Other Republican legislative leaders put the gap at closer to $1.5 billion. 

Whatever the size of the gap, if taxes have to be raised to close it, Perzel suggested that Republicans, who control both chamber of the Legislature, would be more prone to put up a temporary tax increase, perhaps for one year, rather than establishing new higher levels of taxation. 

The most likely target for a tax increase would be the state's personal income tax, which at a flat rate of 2.8 percent regardless of income is fairly low by the standards of other northeastern states. 

While Rendell made a conscious effort during last year's campaign to say he would not take a pledge not to raise taxes, he always followed up that statement by pointing to his record in Philadelphia where he tamed another large structural deficit without raising taxes. By later in his tenure as mayor, Rendell was able to lower taxes five times by small increments.

Rendell said that in addition to stopping the red ink, he believes it's time for the state to take economic recovery into its own hands. During the campaign, he said Pennsylvania does far less borrowing than other states such as New York. So he is proposing that the state do more bond financing which, he said, would be leveraged with private investment and federal funding for projects that would provide both construction jobs and long-range permanent jobs. Rendell is proposing that if there are any business tax cuts next year, they should be tax cuts that are specifically linked to job creation.

Poll finds Pennsylvanians concerned about economics and accepting of slots at racetracks as a short-term fix 

The first statewide poll taken since Governor Rendell took office found Pennsylvanians concerned about the state's economy and, by larger numbers than expected, supporting the extension of gambling to slot machines at the state's horse racing tracks. 

The poll of 702 registered Pennsylvania voters was conducted from Jan. 21 to Jan. 23. And while those surveyed seem to know that the state is facing a major budget crisis, they are in no mood for higher taxes, according to the survey conducted by Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling and research on behalf of the Lincoln Institute, a conservative state think tank. 

Perhaps the most surprising finding in the survey was the extent of support for legalized gambling, which Pennsylvanians apparently see as the least harmful way to raise additional state revenue. Sixty-six percent of those polled said they would support slots at the racetracks and an almost equally high number, 60 percent, said they would allow other forms of gambling, such as riverboat casinos. 

In other findings, Pennsylvanians by an overwhelming margin would like to vote on any increase in school property taxes, they support the enactment of a "Right to Work" act by a nearly two-thirds margin and they are split on the quality of the state's public schools-40 percent calling their schools good while 31 percent said they were mediocre and 16 percent poor. For more information on the poll and the Lincoln Institute go to www.lincolninstitute.org.

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The Four Corners of Pennsylvania and More
Regional political news you can use.

Central Pennsylvania
South Philly's own Vince Fumo buys the farm

Were not sure if this item should be listed here or under southeastern Pennsylvania but
Philadelphia's most colorful politician, state Sen. Vince Fumo of South Philadelphia, has decided to go "Green Acres." He's buying a Central Pennsylvania farm to add to his collection of other residences, which include his restored 19th Century mansion in Philadelphia's Fairmount section (his legal domicile), his Jersey Shore home three houses from the beach in Ventnor, NJ, and his winter retreat on Jupiter Island in Florida.

Fumo, who is a self-made millionaire, has purchased a 100-acre farm on the Susquehanna River in Halifax, Dauphin County, about 20 minutes north of the state capital. He plans to build a cabin overlooking the river and stay there on legislative session days, while hiring help to raise Scottish Highland beef cattle. Fumo, who turns 60 this year, says he's always wanted to do it. He may even build some guest cabins for his adult children and friends. Fumo has told reporters that his offspring are more excited about his farm than anything he's done in recent years. He jokes that he now plans to ask for membership in the Farm Caucus.

Three-term Dauphin County Democratic Commissioner Anthony Petrucci won't seek a fourth term. He has thrown his support to George Hartwick, the mayor of blue-collar Steelton, just south of Harrisburg. Also in the Democratic race is Sandra Mosten, a former Harrisburg city councilwoman and unsuccessful mayoral candidate.

The Republican field is unclear at this writing. First-term incumbent Lowman Henry plans to run for re-election but it's uncertain if he'll run with Jeff Haste, his newly installed fellow Republican commissioner. Haste was appointed by the county's judges to fill the remaining year of the term of John Payne. Payne of Hershey resigned in order to take the seat he won Nov. 5 to the state House of Representatives. Haste irked Henry and some other factions of the county Republicans when he sided with Petrucci to appoint himself as chairman of the commissioner board over the more veteran Henry. It remains to be seen if the rift can be repaired.

Southeastern Pennsylvania
It's a well-financed Street-Katz rematch of 1999 
in the Philadelphia Mayor's Race

Even though he only started raising money about a month ago, Republican Sam Katz is already showing $2.1 million in his quest to unseat first-term Democratic incumbent John Street to occupy the mayor's chair in Philadelphia City Hall.

Katz, until the end of last year, was remaining nonpartisan in his role as the head of Greater Philadelphia First. But that business organization merged with the Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce and former Governor Mark Schweiker now heads up the larger organization. Katz lost the 1999 mayor's race to Street by less than two percentage points.

Faced with a well-financed challenger in Katz, Street's spokesman is arguing that Katz is unelectable, noting that he lost primaries for mayor and governor in 1991 and 1994 respectively and lost the general election to Street in 1999. "What he's never demonstrated is an ability to convince voters to elect him to public office," Street campaign spokesman Frank Keel told reporters after Katz revealed his fund-raising.

This time around Katz has added advertising/public relations maven Brian Tierney to his team as general manager and recently retired Verizon Pennsylvania CEO Dan Wheelan as his finance chairman.

Southwestern Pennsylvania
Allegheny County executive announcement cancelled 
in wake of shuttle tragedy

The stage was set Feb. 1 for a Democratic unity rally for Dan Onorato in his bid to unseat Republican incumbent Jim Roddey as Allegheny County executive. The state's biggest Democrat, Gov. Ed Rendell, was scheduled to be on hand for the announcement. Just days earlier, Onorato's only potential serious intra-party rival, state Sen. Jack Wagner, announced that he would not enter the fray. But the Saturday afternoon event was cancelled in light of that morning's major news that the Space Shuttle Columbia had exploded in a fireball over eastern Texas, killing all seven aboard. Onorato, who is relinquishing his county controller seat after one term to pursue the top job, formally announced his candidacy on Feb. 7.

For his part, Roddey made his re-election bid official Jan. 27 at a rally attended by several Republican luminaries, including U.S. Sens. Arlen Specter and Rick Santorum as well as U.S. Reps. Melissa Hart and Tim Murphy. A former businessman and civic activist who won his first bid for public office in 1999, Roddey defended his record on economic development, maintaining that the county made some modest strides despite a national economic downturn that especially affected the county's largest private employer, US Airways. Roddey also oversaw the implementation of a controversial property tax reassessment process that has resulted in howls from a number of county homeowners. Democrats, who have a 2-1 registration edge in the county, contend that Roddey won his last term on his resume but will be vulnerable on the issues of jobs and property taxes this time around.

Northeastern Pennsylvania
Governor Rendell's personnel picks are affecting mayor's races 
in the Lehigh Valley

Mayors of two of the Lehigh Valley's largest cities, Bethlehem and Easton, have been affected by the election of Democrat Ed Rendell as governor. Both Democratic Mayor Don Cunningham of Bethlehem and Republican Mayor Tom Goldsmith of Easton were supporters of Rendell, who is himself the former mayor of Philadelphia. Cunningham has already gotten his telephone call from the new governor: he is Rendell's designee to be state Secretary of the Department of General Services. Goldsmith is still officially awaiting his call.

Cunningham has three years remaining in his second term as Bethlehem's mayor. For now, he is not officially resigning as the city's mayor, pending confirmation of his appointment by the State Senate. Efforts are underway to speed that process along so that Cunningham can resign before March 4, the deadline cited by Northampton County for advertising the mayoral vacancy and having sufficient time, about a week, for prospective candidates to circulate petitions to get on the May primary ballot.

In Easton, meanwhile, where the mayor's job is on the ballot this year, Goldsmith has announced that he is not seeking a fourth term. That leaves the race to succeed him wide open. Recent news accounts have speculated that Goldsmith could be appointed to a vacancy on the state Liquor Control Board to the spot vacated by Republican John Jones of Pottsville when he ascended to the federal bench.

Northwestern Pennsylvania
Former State Senator Bill Slocum, sent to jail for an environmental crime, 
may run for commissioner in Warren County

The last time anyone in politics had heard from Bill Slocum he had lost his bid to keep his state Senate seat in the 2000 election, despite having the Republican nomination in an overwhelmingly Republican district. It could be because of how Slocum spent his summer vacation that election year. He spent a month in a federal prison after pleading guilty to an environmental charge stemming from his service several years ago as borough manager of Youngsville in Warren County. After protesting his innocence for years, Slocum in 2000 plead guilty to polluting Brokenstraw Creek, which runs through Youngsville with 3.5 million gallons of raw sewage, a 12-year pattern that continued through his time both as treatment plant manager and borough manager. Ordinarily, we would say name recognition matters in a low-profile race like one for county commissioner but in Slocum's case name recognition could very well work against him.

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